Putting Over/Under Goals at the Heart of Your Betting Strategy

Experienced bettors will use every tool available to them to ensure that they have the best chance of winning. At times, that means looking beyond the win-draw-win markets to find value in other areas. Stats are, of course, your friend when you have a bet, and often they can be used to good effect in other markets. What the Americans called props (proposition) bets, we loosely term overs/unders in the UK. Effectively, a props bet is a wager on something that does not in and of itself impact the final outcome of the game, thus you’re not betting on a specific team to win or lose. It could be the number of goals, corners, cards, throw-ins, shots on target, and so on.

In terms of betting strategies, over/under goals markets are one of the most popular for UK bettors. There are several reasons why punters like it, not least the fact the bet remains in with a chance even when you feel the team you expected to win is underperforming. Over/under bets are usually part of accumulators. But the key to them is that they are stats-based bets. The data is easy to use. And while no betting strategy is foolproof, using stats is always more effective than betting blindly in the long run.

Over/under goals remains popular

The most popular metric for over/under in football betting is the 2.5 goals market. There are several reasons for this too. Most notably, the fact that 2.5 goals is somewhere close to the average number of goals scored per match in the English top flight. It varies by season, of course, which we will talk about a bit later. But you can consider that over the course of a season, around half the game will have a scoreline of 0-0, 1-0, 0-1, 1-1, 2-0, and 0-2, i.e., under 2.5 goals, and the other half will be other scorelines, i.e., all possible combinations over 2.5 goals.

It should be noted that the stat varies by division. For example, the Bundesliga has one of the highest goal ratios of the big leagues in Europe. Matches averaged about 3.17 goals per game last season. As a general rule, the Premier League tends to have more goals per game than the lower divisions in England. Low-scoring leagues include La Liga (a trend that has been going downwards in recent seasons). France Ligue 2 has traditionally been one of the lowest-scoring leagues.

More time equals more goals

As mentioned, trends change over time. La Liga has been trending towards lower-scoring matches over the last few seasons. The Premier League has been trending higher. In 2020/21, Premier League matches averaged 2.69 goals per match, increasing to 2.82 in 2021/22, and 2.89 goals last season. The question, then, for the 2023/24 season is, will that trend hold, decline, or go upward? You must consider that external factors may play a role, and one of those could be the new rulings on injury time, where referees have been told to add extra minutes. If the ball is in play more, then there are naturally going to be more goals.

Of course, you must also factor in that this will vary from team to team. If Manchester City are at home to a team like Luton Town, that game is likely to see a glut of goals. If it is two defensive-minded teams, say Crystal Palace and Wolves, then under 2.5 goals might be more likely. Unfortunately, the bookies will know this, too, and they will set the odds accordingly. Still, as we said, stats are your friend, and if you can catch the trend early, you might be more successful in your football betting.