A Constant Run Of Football Upsets: Why Resurgent Low-Placed Teams So Often Spring Surprises On Title Contenders

When Michael Carrick was riding the crest of a wave, having won his first four games in a row, he came up against his former club, West Ham, in his next outing. A look at the table would show a transformed Manchester United well in the mix for a Champions League place, while the West Ham side was deep in relegation trouble. So, why are so many analysts saying that the 1-1 draw that could have easily been a West Ham win was so predictable?

Big Club Form Often Dips When Games Have Less Pressure

Opening up his tenure against Manchester City and Arsenal was the toughest domestic introduction available, and yet United won both games in style. Two more wins followed, including the apparent return of ‘Fergie Time,’ and it seemed like the United of old were back. While there are no signs that they then got complacent, history repeatedly shows us that the big clubs can slightly go off the boil against lower clubs, while the latter feel like they are having one of their biggest games of the season. There’s simply more riding on the game for the likes of West Ham, as they only get to play one of the biggest teams in the world twice a year.

Last Six Form Is More Important Than League Table Placement

West Ham had actually won three of their last four going into the contest with Manchester United, putting them on a run of form that bettered anything they had achieved during the season. Summerville was also on a run of form and making decisive contributions in the attacking third, providing evidence for the growing belief amongst the Hammers. Given that all the talk about Carrick’s influence was compressed into the previous four games, it stands to reason that focusing far more on West Ham’s recent form than their position in the table makes a lot of sense.

Factoring In The Belief Of An In-Form Attacking Player

Summerville has struggled for a while at West Ham, but in recent weeks, he looks to be a player transformed. His movement was quicker, more direct, and more incisive in the games leading up to the contest with Manchester United, indicating that West Ham would have a constant outlet when pinned in and an option when breaking forward at pace. Goals and assists are one thing, but there is a lot to be said for a player passing the eye test in terms of how they have been playing in the weeks before a game. Anyone who has watched West Ham will have known that Summerville would cause the Reds problems.

Don’t Forget That Better Teams Can Call On More Quality

Sites like LV BET will have provided odds of a Manchester United fightback that lengthened the longer the game went on, especially as they were still 1-0 down deep into injury time. But as Sesko reminded all of the statisticians out there, individual quality is often correlated with transfer budget. When the £72 million signing hooked in a stunning volley from outside the near post and into the top corner on the run, it proved that there is always room for a moment of magic that makes both teams feel like winners during a 1-1 draw.