How to assess Arsenal's clean-sheet record

Arsenal's 1-0 victory at Liverpool on 1 November 2026 brought their Premier League tally to six clean sheets in nine matches. Kai Havertz scored after 16 minutes, and Arsenal protected that lead until the final whistle.

The case for a football bet on under 2.5 requires an assessment of Arsenal's scoring as well as their defending. Begin with the results, then examine the chances behind them before estimating what the next fixture might produce.

Arsenal's clean sheets and the match totals

Create separate columns for goals conceded and total match goals. Keep league fixtures apart from cup ties so that changes in opposition and selection remain visible.

Arsenal's results already illustrate why the columns matter:

Although Arsenal kept Coventry from scoring, their three goals took the match total above 2.5. These examples refer to full match markets, while stoppage time needs to be included; however, extra time needs to be left out.

Include matches played by Arsenal when they conceded goals; otherwise, the comparison would be only based on the carried-out comparison of the first nine league games. Distinguish between home and away game performances before grouping the opponents based on how dangerous they were. The next opponent should be analyzed based on the offense used against Arsenal.

Liverpool's missed chances and Arsenal's defensive response

Liverpool could not get a single shot on target, but their first half undoubtedly gave a lot of possibilities to ensure something special. For example, Florian Wirtz hit the crossbar from a free kick and Alexis Mac Allister missed a goal even after a great pass. Liverpool managed to get 28 touches in the Arsenal box in the first half.

Replay those incidents before concluding that David Raya had nothing difficult to deal with. A shot can miss the target because of poor finishing even when the defence has allowed a dangerous opening.

Divide your review into two passages:

• Before half-time: identify how Liverpool reached the box and whether Arsenal lost runners or conceded space around crosses.
• After half-time: compare the openings Liverpool created once Arsenal defended in a more compact block.

Use expected goals from the same provider across the comparison matches, and separate penalties from open-play chances. Note the score when each chance occurred. Arsenal defending a lead after an early goal can produce a different match from Arsenal chasing an equaliser.

Include their attacking chances too. Christos Tzolis forced a save from Alisson in the second half at Anfield. Further Arsenal goals would have changed the total without weakening the evidence about their defensive organisation.

The next opponent's attacking profile

Review two recent performances by the next opponent under comparable conditions. For a visitor to the Emirates, away matches against strong possession sides are more informative than a comfortable home win against weaker opposition.

Look at the six most recent league games of the opponent and break down the matches played at home, and then what was played away. Note the number of goals, shots within the box, as well as if the top striker started or not. Analyse those values versus the average values of the season. Flag red cards so that extra space does not distort comparisons. A team creating little on most away trips should not receive a strong attacking forecast because of one spectacular goal. Conversely, repeated chances missed by a regular scorer deserve more attention than the last scoreline alone would suggest.

Identify where their forwards receive the ball. A striker relying on crosses asks different questions of Arsenal's centre-backs than one attacking the space behind an advanced full-back. Check whether the players supplying those passes are expected to start.

If you know that striker mainly from international football, add recent club footage. Footage reviewed for an AFCON bet may reveal his runs against a deep defence, while his club's current matches show how often teammates find those runs. The scoring forecast should reflect the service he will receive against Arsenal.

A forecast tied to the confirmed lineup

Before making your prediction, ensure you look at the defensive and midfield situation of the teams. The line-up of the full-backs and holding midfielders can make a huge difference regarding the defence around the penalty area. Return to the earlier entries if you realize you selected different defenders.

Compare your estimates with the odds this time. The clean-sheet odds of 1.70 suggest a break-even probability of about 58.8%. A record of six clean sheets in nine matches, which is 66.7%, alone will not be sufficient for making any conclusions in other games. Consider each match independently. For under 2.5, consider Arsenal’s scoring capability as well.