Can AI Accurately Predict Euro 2024?

Over the past few years, advances in AI and machin

June 25, 2024 Talk Football

Over the past few years, advances in AI and machine learning technology have created exciting new possibilities in various aspects of modern life—from AI-powered chatbots to simple task automation, AI is changing the way we live for the better. But how close can a computer come to accurately predicting the Euro 2024?

We know what you’re thinking, if Paul the Octopus can accurately predict the 2010 World Cup results, surely AI can do the same for Euro 2024. Unfortunately, it’s not quite that simple. Whether Paul could really look into the future or not, chances are, he was at least a little lucky.

Football can be notoriously difficult to predict, but games also only have three (or two in the knockout stages) potential outcomes. As a result, understanding whether an accurate prediction is pure chance or statistically calculated can also be difficult.

Keep reading for a deep dive into whether AI can really predict Euro 2024 results. We’ll explore the main favourites, the variables AI uses to calculate results, and other key pieces of information.

How Does AI Predict Results?

The main thing to understand when reflecting on whether AI can accurately predict Euro 2024 is the way it attempts to do so. Computers don’t just pick results out of thin air; they analyse a vast amount of data to deliver well-informed predictions.

In fact, AI uses a similar process to professional football analysts when anticipating results. The only difference is that modern supercomputers can comb through a million times more statistics and pieces of data than human beings. Theoretically, this creates far less margin for error.

Here are some of the main variables AI considers to predict the outcome of Euro 2024 matches and the overall tournament winner:

Team Strength: one of the main variables is team strength. AI calculates this using various factors. These can include the club level of international players, alongside win/loss records, past performances, and FIFA rankings.
Player Performance: analysing each player’s performances over the season is integral to weighing up the chances of each team. AI checks things like goals scored, assists, tackles, successful dribbles, and more.
Playing Styles: taking teams’ playing styles into account is another key variable. AI considers formations, specifically, how certain formations can work better against specific setups (i.e. two strikers against a three-man defence).
External Factors: checking for external factors, like injuries, home advantage, and weather conditions, also provides valuable insights into how teams may perform. For example, a team tipped to win could lose their most important player to injury, consequently reducing their chances. In the same way, Germany could use their home advantage to increase the win potential.
Match Simulators: while the variables above can also be utlised by humans, AI has a significant advantage when it comes to actual match simulators. Modern supercomputers have the processing power required to virtually simulate football matches using vast treasure troves of data millions of times. AI then takes an average and applies this to its predictions.

Main Euro 2024 Favourites

Here are the three most hotly tipped teams at Euro 2024.

France

France almost made it two World Cups on the trot in Qatar, falling agonisingly short despite Kylian Mbappe’s hattrick. Les Blues have arguably the best squad on paper at the tournament, with youthful verve combined with ample experience at the highest level. Most tipsters place France at the top of their list, and it’s easy to see why.

England

With a great mix of established talent, alongside rising stars like Jude Bellingham and Cole Palmer, England haven’t had such an exciting crop of players since the early 2010s. Gareth Southgate is under pressure to finally deliver another major trophy, and he might just get it in Germany this summer.

Germany

Can the Germans make up for their poor showings in the last few major tournaments and claim the Euros on home soil? A young and rejuvenated squad still has plenty of experience, and Toni Kroos will be especially motivated to end his glittering career with one of the few trophies he hasn’t hoisted. Don’t write them off, the Germans are favourites for a reason.

Is AI Accurate?

The main question on most people’s lips will centre on whether AI is actually accurate or not, especially bettors using the technology to assist with their predictions. While AI can be a notably accurate tool to forecast events and overall tournament winners, it’s important to note that the technology isn’t foolproof.

Despite the valuable insights gained from processing so much data, AI still struggles to account for individual flashes of brilliance or the strange magic that can give untipped teams a vital burst of inspiration. A topic that is discussed a lot in the sports scene is “Can AI be used to predict games?”. In the context of betting, AI is better used as another tool for information rather than a prediction machine. Using the AI models to analyse the latest scores, player stats, player health, and historical data can help inform betting decisions. This information can be combined with the latest UK betting offers to capitalise on any insights a player might gleam.

Euro 2024 Schedule

So, while AI has several beneficial tools at its disposal to accurately predict Euro 2024, it still cannot forecast results with 100% efficiency—and likely never will.

Before we let you go, here are the main dates for Euro 2024 to get on your calendar: